The WeBuyTucsonHomes Blog

The week before Christmas saw 190 Notice of Defaults(NOD) filed in Pima County.  NOD’s are the first stage of foreclosure, and are usually filed 90 days before the house will go to auction at the courthouse steps.

The 190 filings this week total 1st lien position was ~$38.3 million and Zillow Estimates of the homes were $39.86.  Again usually these homes include a second or even a 3rd mortgage so we add an additional 15% to get a total encumbrance of $44.04 million.  This is substantially higher than the Zillow Estimates and means each home is underwater by 10%.

A surprise in the filings was the zipcode 85706 with 28 filings, outpacing the closest competitor zipcode 85713 with 13 filings.  The subdivisions with the most filings: Continental Reserve, Tres Pueblos, and Terra Del Sol.

The holiday season is finally past and the retail numbers coming in look grim.  Already companies are planning to layoff 1 million workers in 2009.  If the economic numbers get worse the layoffs could rise even higher, leading to a higher foreclosure rate.  I have already seen investment banks predicting 8 million foreclosures through 2012.  Rest assured Pima County will have its share of that 8 million.

I suspect the higher number of defaults came from the previous weeks low filing number.  For the week of Dec 8-13 2008, 216 N.O.D were filed in Pima County.  The total sum of first mortgage liens came in around 39.3 million while the Zillow Estimates came in around 42.5 million.  If you add most of the mortgages contained 2nd or 3rd mortgages at 15% of the first the total liens came in around $45.2 million dollars.  This means most houses are ~13% underwater and have very little chance of selling on the market.

Continuing a trend 85746 and 85706 both lead the way with 22 filings for the week which is up from the previous weeks.  85710 followed with 12 notices for the week.  Here is the graphical break down, and the subdivision with the most filings was: Gladden Farms.

Pima County NOD filings

The past week saw little change in the number of foreclosures for the first week of December.  The past month large banks, Freddie and Fannie Mae released press statements announcing a hold on foreclosures until the end of January and sometimes later.  Here in Pima County the number of defaults filed hasn’t changed substantially, but it could be they are postponing all foreclosures that are already slated between now and the end of January.

To the chart!

195 notice of defaults were filed Dec. 1-7th.  The leading zip code was 85742 which happens to be because a luxury builder has struggled to make payments, and sell property.  If you are looking for some great luxury deals this might be for you.  If you would like to know the address or the builder just shoot me an email at caleb@webuytucsonhomes.com.  The properties in 85742 range low end $121,000 to $2,000,000.

The next zip code was 85746, and 85706 with 16 and 14 defaults respectively.  85746 has remained high on the notice of default list and I expect this will continue with the high number of homes for sale along with the bank sales in that zip code.  I have talked with many sellers in that area and it is still very tough to negotiate with the banks to have them accept a substantial short sale.  I remain pessimistic on the neighborhoods in the new communities and think it will take many years for them to recover.

If you wish to discuss anything from the graphs please post a comment or shoot me an email.

18 NODs in Pima County